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The GOP Pollster Who Predicted Trump’s Win

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The Trump campaign did far better than expected with women voters.

The Trump campaign did far better than expected with women voters.
(Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press)
Many last minute election and exit polls, from Politico‘s National Tracking Poll to Fox News, showed a tie race or predicted Democrat Hillary Clinton would be the nation’s next President. They were wrong.A Republican consultant from New York said he knew they were wrong, and told his boss Donald Trump as much in the election’s final hours.

“The [polls] were based on a 2012 model that favored Barack Obama,” said GOP pollster John McLaughlin, founder of McLaughlin & Associates.

McLaughlin polled New York, Ohio, Georgia, Virginia and New Mexico for the Trump team.

“Hillary Clinton wasn’t able to inspire younger voters, African-American voters, women and Millennials quite the way that Barack Obama did,” added McLaughlin.

Meanwhile, older working class voters were coming out for Trump and showing up in early voting statistics in places like North Carolina and Florida, a signal that the old Democratic guard was not viable this time around.

McLaughlin worried about the lack of women supporting Trump, but in the end, the campaign didn’t do as badly as it anticipated. CNN’s exit polls indicate that Trump received 42 percent of the female vote, while 54 percent of women voted for Clinton—that’s one point less than Obama received in 2012.

And of course, Trump did very well with men. The combination added up to a coalition of Trump supporters in the nation’s Sun Belt and Rust Belt that brought victory to the GOP candidate.

Unlike other Trump pollsters who were still waiting for their bills to be paid as of the latest Federal Election Commission filings, McLaughlin said his firm has been paid in full.


This article can be viewed at wnyc.org.

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