National Review Online: Sanders Up, Hillary Down, and Trump Strong in Latest Poll

The results of our just-completed national poll of 1,000 likely voters, including a sample of 422 Republican-primary voters and 454 Democratic-primary voters, conducted February 11–17, shows that this election year will be one like no other — it’s very clear that reality TV has come to the presidential campaign.

Here are some of the truly unique results:

Both parties’ presumed front-runners are disliked by the majority of Americans.

Hillary Clinton is disliked by six in ten voters, with her highest-ever unfavorable rating of 59 percent and a favorable rating of only 38 percent. She has worn most Americans out. It’s true that among Democrats she is liked 72 percent to 26 percent. However, she is disliked by independents, viewed favorably by 26 percent and unfavorably by 65 percent; and really disliked by Republicans — only 8 percent hold a favorable opinion of the former secretary of state, while 92 percent view her unfavorably.

Amazingly, Donald Trump is slightly more unpopular among all voters, with 62 percent unfavorable and just 35 percent favorable ratings. Only among Republicans does Trump have a majority positive favorable rating of 57 percent — but 41 percent are unfavorable toward the New York businessman. Most other voter groups viewed him net negatively. Among all Catholic voters, Trump was unpopular — even before the pope criticized him — favorable 38 percent, unfavorable 59 percent. We can expect pro-Clinton liberals led by President Obama to keep attacking Trump more than any other Republican in hopes of ensuring that these attacks bring a reaction of more votes from conservatives and Republicans. However, Trump will need to raise his favorable rating among conservative Republicans, where his favorable rating is only 55 percent and his unfavorable rating is 44 percent.

Three in ten of all voters are unfavorable to both Clinton and Trump.

Interestingly, Bernie Sanders among all voters is a net positive, 48 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable. Among Democrats he is viewed favorably by 71 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent. Republicans don’t like him — with an almost exact opposite rating of favorable (22 percent) to unfavorable (71 percent), while a plurality of independents like the Vermont socialist — 47 percent to 38 percent. Liberal Democrats love Bernie: 82 percent to 12 percent.

The trend for the Democratic-primary ballot doesn’t look good for Hillary Clinton, moving from the two-to-one advantage Clinton held over the last four months to a dead heat with Sanders leading by just a tenth of a point, 42.6 percent to 42.5 percent with 15 percent undecided. These undecided Democratic-primary voters like Clinton and Sanders about evenly — Clinton is viewed favorably by 57 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent; Sanders favorable 55 percent to unfavorable 22 percent. Among affiliated Democrats, Clinton wins 46 percent to 40 percent, while among affiliated independents who would vote in the Democratic primary, Sanders wins 54 percent to 23 percent. Ironically, men preferred Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent, while women preferred Sanders 48 percent to 39 percent. The Democratic primary is now a contest between Clinton and not Clinton, and Sanders is the “not Clinton” candidate. However, it’s also very clear that African Americans are Clinton’s last redoubt in the Democratic primary: While whites support Sanders 49 percent to 32 percent and Hispanics favor Sanders 54 percent to 40 percent, African Americans prefer Clinton 69 percent to 18 percent. With no room for error, Hillary Clinton should be naming Michelle Obama as her choice for vice president any day now.

In the Republican primary Donald Trump still leads among the reduced field of candidates, but appears to be weakening. (Again this poll was taken right before President Obama and the pope attacked Trump. How the pope ever coordinated an attack on Trump with Obama as a way to help Trump with conservative Protestants, we’ll probably never know. But these attacks should give Trump a boost on the eve of the South Carolina primary.) Over the past four months Trump’s national lead has slipped 3 points to 34 percent while Ted Cruz’s numbers have risen 11 points to 21 percent. Marco Rubio has also gone up 6 points to 14 percent, while Ben Carson has declined from an October high of 24 percent to only 12 percent now. Jeb Bush is at 7 percent and John Kasich is at 6 percent. The undecided vote is only 4 percent. Still, the Republican race is volatile.

Although Trump still leads, he seems capped with a plurality of the vote. The reason is simple — his opponents’ voters don’t like him. Cruz voters’ opinion of Trump is favorable 35 percent, unfavorable 64 percent; for Rubio voters it’s 33 percent to 65 percent; Carson voters 35 percent to 62 percent; Bush voters 26 percent to 74 percent; and Kasich voters 36 percent to 64 percent. Only among the few undecided voters is Trump viewed favorably: 57 percent to 40 percent. So there may be another hidden 2 points for Trump among the undecided, but the 62 percent that’s voting for one of Trump’s opponents is largely unavailable to him.

Trump leads among these key Republican primary constituencies over Cruz and Rubio:

Those who disapprove of Obama: 36 percent, 23 percent, 14 percent.

Republicans: 32 percent, 22 percent, 17 percent.

Independents: 40 percent, 19 percent, 7 percent.

Moderates: 46 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent.

Conservatives: 29 percent, 26 percent, 17 percent.

Men: 44 percent, 14 percent, 13 percent.

Women: 29 percent, 26 percent, 15 percent.

Ironically considering his spat with the pope, Trump led with Catholic Republican primary voters: 39 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent and Rubio’s 15 percent; while Cruz led among Evangelicals 27 percent to Trump’s 26 percent and Carson’s 18 percent. We’ll see if the papal criticism helps or hurts Trump very soon.

Still, Trump has enough support to get close to a majority. When Republican-primary voters were asked if they had a second choice, 23 percent said Cruz, 15 percent chose Trump, 15 percent Rubio, 14 percent Bush, 14 percent Carson, and 9 percent said Kasich.

The Trump second-choice vote comes mainly from Cruz (36 percent), Carson (26 percent), and Rubio (21 percent).

Cruz’s second-choice vote comes mainly from Trump (61 percent) and Carson (24 percent).

The Rubio second-choice vote comes from Cruz (38 percent), then from among Bush (15 percent), Carson (14 percent), and Kasich (12 percent). Only 20 percent comes from Trump.

So Trump benefits if Cruz, Carson, or Rubio make mistakes, but his opponents may benefit more. Cruz benefits most when Trump makes a mistake, while Rubio benefits most when someone other than Trump makes a mistake or leaves the race.

If Carson were to leave the race, his voters’ second choice would be Cruz (43 percent) and Trump (31 percent). If Bush were to leave, 31 percent of his vote goes to Rubio, 25 percent to Cruz. If Kasich folded, 38 percent of his voters would go to Bush and 26 percent to Rubio.

The result of this volatility is that — with six candidates dividing delegates — the Republican nomination battle is likely to last until the last primaries before anyone can get a majority.

Similarly, the General Election race, reflecting a 2012 turnout model, shows that the potential matchups would be very close:

Clinton 46 percent, Trump 44 percent.

Clinton 47 percent, Cruz 43 percent.

Clinton 46 percent, Rubio 44 percent.

Clinton 46 percent, Bush 43 percent.

In a three-way race, with Sanders as the Democrat and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg as an independent against Trump or Cruz, Bloomberg currently takes more from the Republicans than from the Democrats, while Sanders wins a plurality among the independents. So Sanders leads these three-way ballots:

Sanders 45 percent, Trump 35 percent, Bloomberg 10 percent.

Sanders 45 percent, Cruz 33 percent, Bloomberg 9 percent.

If Bloomberg wants to win as an independent, it’s clear that the capitalist needs to find a way to collapse the socialist and win more Democratic votes.

Many of the major trends for the November election remain unchanged. If anything, they are becoming more intense.

Among all voters in the poll, the majority still disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing.

The generic ballot for Congress is a tie with Democrats and Republicans at 44 percent each.

The majority of voters disapprove of Obamacare, 55 percent to only 41 percent who approve. This is the highest disapproval for Obamacare since May of 2014.

Americans consistently want a smaller federal government. The majority of voters favor a smaller federal government with fewer services versus a larger federal government with more services, 53 percent to 30 percent.

Two in three voters say that the country is on the wrong track, 66 percent to only 27 percent saying the right direction.

The large majority of voters, 58 percent, consistently want the next president and Congress to change direction and move away from the policies of Barack Obama. Only 31 percent would continue the policies of President Obama.

As forecast from our poll last month, we expected Secretary Clinton and her allies to try to nationalize the Democratic primary while sowing controversy and dissension within the Republican primaries. We warned the Democrats would try to elevate an eventual Republican winner with negatives to match Hillary Clinton’s. The Clinton campaign has done a better job of elevating Trump and polarizing against him than they have for themselves in their contest with Sanders. In fact, it’s clear that against Bernie Sanders, she has slipped badly — so much so that Sanders could beat Hillary Clinton. The volatility and fireworks have only just begun. Expect the new hit TV show, Celebrity Apprentice for President, to continue for some time.

— John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin are Republican strategists and partners in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates. They are not aligned with any presidential candidate or super PAC.