TO: Scott Wagner for Governor Campaign Team
FROM: Rob Schmidt, McLaughlin & Associates
RE: Pennsylvania Statewide Survey Results
Date: April 5, 2018
Our most recent survey of likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania (conducted April 2-3) shows Senator Scott Wagner improving on the already significant lead he had, now garnering an outright majority of the vote. Wagner’s support is growing and Paul Mango is collapsing, with his ballot share dropping and his negatives spiking. Below are the key findings from our poll:
- On the actual ballot test, Scott Wagner leads with 50.2%, followed by Paul Mango at 23.6% and Laura Ellsworth at 9.4%, with 16.8% still undecided. Wagner’s lead of 26.6% over Mango is actually larger than Mango’s lead over Ellsworth (14.2%). This is very troubling for Mango, as Ellsworth has not aired one television spot and Mango has spent almost $2.5 million more than her, according to the most recent campaign finance reports.
- Wagner leads in every media market in the state and is stronger with high propensity voters, seniors and self-described conservatives, which are the key voter groups in a Republican primary electorate. In addition, Wagner trounces Mango with most engaged voters and the ones who know the two candidates the best. It is clear that Republican primary voters are coalescing around Wagner.
- Mango’s vote is shrinking because his negatives are rapidly growing. In early March, even though Mango was still losing by double digits, his image rating was a net positive (33% Favorable, 3% Unfavorable). Now, Mango’s favorables have dropped five points and his unfavorables have increased six fold. To make matters even worse for Mango, he is underwater with high propensity voters and seniors, meaning that more of these voters are unfavorable to him than they are favorable. This is an extremely difficult trend for Mango to reverse, especially since these are some of Wagner’s best performing groups.
| Mango Image | 3/5/18 | 4/3/18 |
| Favorable | 33% | 28% |
| Unfavorable | 3% | 18% |
| No Opinion | 23% | 26% |
| Never Heard Of | 41% | 28% |
| NET | +30 | +10 (Loss of 20) |
BOTTOM LINE:
With less than six weeks until the election, Republican primary voters are further rallying behind Scott Wagner. The false and negative attacks that are coming out of desperation from the Mango campaign have fallen completely flat with voters and have actually backfired by worsening his numbers. With virtually no path to victory, Mango is doing Tom Wolf’s bidding by trying to divide Republicans. We should expect nothing less from a corporate elitist, outsourcer and political opportunist in Paul Mango who will do anything to try to get elected. Although Republicans have been increasingly supporting Wagner and constantly rejecting Mango’s lies, we need to continue to correct the record and remain very vigilant.
Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 500 likely May 15th Republican primary election voters in Pennsylvania on April 2nd and 3rd, 2018. All interviews were administered via telephone by professional interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by county, race, age and gender to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous statewide even-year Republican primary elections. This poll of 500 likely Republican primary election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and refusals.
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PA Statewide GOP Wagner 4-5-18 Executive Summary
