By John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlinThursday, 12 November 2020 12:34 PMCurrent | Bio | Archive
As we have done, every two years in federal elections, since 1994, we once again conducted a post-election poll of 1,000 actual voters online who either voted early or on election day.
The survey had an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.
The voters were interviewed on Nov. 2-3.
This being an election year like no other that we have ever seen, President Trump and America faced the challenges of impeachment, a global pandemic, depression level unemployment, a breakdown of law and order with rioting and looting, bitter media bias, big tech censorship —and now an extremely close election count, and probable recounts, where the media has proclaimed Joe Biden the winner prior to the legal state certification of the votes.
Even as we write this analysis four key battleground states —Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with a combined 57 critical electoral votes — have collectively provided a margin of less than 95,000 votes out of an estimated 158 million cast.
This is only 6 one hundredths of a percent of the entire vote.
Full disclosure —we worked for President Trump in 2016 and in 2020.
Since the coronavirus pandemic hit America, we have been saying for months that it would be a very close election and the President could win the election.
Today, “close” seems to be a gross understatement.
However, all during the year it earned us the derision and enmity of the anti-Trump, liberal, mainstream media. As we challenged their biased anti-Trump polling for under polling Republicans and Trump voters, we were repeatedly attacked. Even CNN’s Chris Cuomo and CNN’s legal counsel (appropriately named David Vigilante) defended their skewed and biased polling by peronally attacking our firm.
Among the most egregious examples, CNN manufactured a national poll in June by saying that the President was losing by 14 points —55% to 41%.
Right before election day CNN doubled down on the same methodology and their final October national poll said the president would lose in a landslide by 12 points —54% to 42%.
Our main battle with media and Democratic pollsters was that their polls among adults or registered voters had polled only 26%, 25% or even fewer Republicans in their samples.
The 2016 media exit polls and the 2018 exit polls both had Republicans at 33% to 37% Democrat. Many of their so called polling experts defended the lack of Republicans in the polls.
Ironically, their 2020 exit poll now says the actual national electorate was 36% Republican and 37% Democrats!
It was pretty clear to us that they were under polling the Republicans and Trump voters to create media narrative that the president was losing badly and would lose the election in a “Biden landslide” and “blue wave” to discourage President Trump’s supporters and voters.
They seemed to know that the president’s voters preferred to vote in person and that Joe Biden’s voters would prefer to vote early by mail.
If they could discourage our vote from actually showing up on election day, their predictions would have come true and their polls would be right.
Our post- election poll showed that only one third, 36%, of the voters, voted on election day. Among the election day voters, they voted for President Trump 62% to 36%.
Among the two thirds, 64% who voted early before election day by mail, drop-off or in person, they voted for Joe Biden 58% to 40%.
Breaking apart those who voted early in person, they were almost evenly split Biden 51% – Trump 49%.
However, it’s clear if President Trump had not had a strong turnout on Election Day, there would have been a Biden blue wave. President Trump, after recovering from the virus, rebounded with a very, strong debate performance, a strong contrast against Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., on the issues, and daily vigorous campaigning defying the biased media polls that had forecast a double digit loss for him.
President Trump won among voters who decided their ballot before Labor Day or in the last week.
- Voters who decided their vote before Labor Day voted for President Trump 51 – 49%. (60% of all voters).
- Voters who decided their vote in the last week preferred Trump 58% – 40%. (10% of all voters.)
Joe Biden won among voters who decided their vote in September or October.
- Voters who decided after Labor Day in September – Biden won 61% to 38%. (14 % of all voters.)
- Voters who decided their vote in October before the last week voted for Biden — 52% to 44% (15% of all voters.)
Candidates for Congress were strongly tied to the top of their respective tickets.
- Voters who voted for Republicans for Congress voted for Trump 91% – 9%. (48% of all voters.)
- Voters who voted for Democrats for Congress voted for Joe Biden 92% – 7%. (48% of all voters.)
Fortunately for Joe Biden almost three in ten voters, 27% of all voters, were not aware of the alleged corruption charges against Joe Biden.
- Voters who were aware of Joe Biden’s corruption, voted for President Trump 55% – 44%. (73% of all voters.)
- Voters who were not aware of Joe Biden’s family corruption voted for Biden 66% – 31%. (27% of all voters.)
Had more voters felt the U.S. was headed in the right direction, it would have benefited President Trump.
- Voters who said the U.S. is headed in the right direction voted for the President, 84% – 14%. (40% of all voters.)
- Voters who said the U.S. was on the wrong track voted for Biden 74% – 24%. (59% of all voters.)
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