By John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin
Wednesday, 31 July 2024 01:22 PM EDT
Following Kamala Harris’ week of honeymoon media coverage, our latest poll shows she has failed to move the needle.
The new national survey ending July 29 shows former-President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 47% to 45% — as a historic number of Americans say the nation is on the wrong track.
The poll shows Trump is up +2% — just as he was in our national poll detailing the Trump vs. Biden race.
In that June 26 poll President Trump led Joe Biden 46% to 44%.
Since then much happened in this unprecedented election. Let’s recap:
June 27: President Trump so soundly defeated Joe Biden in the earliest presidential general election debate that the liberal media and Democratic party bosses began the drumbeat to have Joe Biden withdraw as their candidate.
July 13: An assassin’s bullet misses its mark by less than an inch, and Pres. Trump miraculously survives.
July 15-19: Trump unites the Republican Party in a well watched and seamlessly successful Republican National Convention.
July 21: After unrelenting pressure from Democratic Party bosses and Obama accolytes, Joe Biden withdraws from the campaign and hand picks Kamala Harris to replace him.
Now, after a week of the media re-inventing Kamala, we are back to square one: Trump still leads.
On June 26 we had President Trump leading Kamala 47% to 42%, Harris has merely moved the Biden vote into her column.
There are some differences in the different voter segment in the two-way ballot from Trump vs. Biden in June to Trump vs. Harris in July.
Here are some:
- Among African Americans Trump received 28% to Biden’s 64%. Among Blacks it’s now Trump 18% to Harris’ 74%.
- Among Hispanics Trump received 42% to Biden’s 45%. Among Latinos it’s now Trump 37% to Harris’ 53%.
- Among white voters, Trump was leading 51% to Biden’s 40%. It’s now Trump 56% to Harris 38%.
- Among married voters Trump was leading 52% to Biden’s 38%. It’s now Trump 56% to Harris 37%.
- Among rural voters Trump’s lead over Biden has increased from +14%, going from 52%-38% to now Trump up +29%, with Trump at 62% and Harris 33%.
With Robert Kennedy, Jr. and others on the ballot, it’s Trump 42%, Harris 41%, Kennedy 8%.
Last month President Trump was leading 39%, Biden 37% and Kennedy 10%.
Harris appears to have taken Democrats back from Kennedy.
However, the majority of all voters believes Trump will win 51%-39%.
The biggest positive change is for Kamala Harris is that her net favorability increased by 8%.
Last month Harris had a favorable to unfavorable rating of 40% to 54%, that’s a minus 14%.
Now her favorable to unfavorable rating has improved to 45%-51%, for a minus 6%, for a total net increase of +8%.
Still 75% say the country is on the wrong track. Only 18% say it’s in the right direction.
This is an all-time high wrong track in our national polling.
Among the undecided presidential voters, 79% say we are on the wrong track.
After his withdrawal Joe Biden’s job approval got worse, going in June from 41% approve, 57% disapprove — moving now to 38% approve and 60% disapprove.
Among the undecided presidential voters, 68% disapprove of Joe Biden’s job as president.
No wonder Kamala Harris is trying to rewrite her role as Vice President where she was a cheerleader for Joe Biden failed policies.
Economic issues remain the top concerns 45% (specifically inflation 29%), 22% social issues (specifically abortion only 6%), 17% security issues (specifically border 10%).
Most voters, 64%-29%, say that the economy is getting worse versus better.
And 84% have been negatively impacted by inflation- including 50% who are struggling to afford basic necessities.
And the Republicans maintain a lead in the generic ballot for Congress over the Democrats 46%-44%.
With less than 100 days to go, it seems that not much has changed — other than the Democratic candidate is now younger, more foolish and more radical than Joe Biden.
Note: The findings of our just completed national poll of 1,000 likely voters +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval was taken between July 23 and July 29.
Our latest national poll results may be found here.
